Bloomberg ETF analysts have reduced the likelihood that the spot Ethereum ETF would be approved in May to 35%. Eric Balachunas, a top analyst, stated, “We are at 35% odds.”
Although colleague James Seyffart had projected a 60–65% possibility, Balchunas had claimed in January that there was a 70% likelihood of approval by May.
“This Ethereum ETF cycle feels like the opposite of Bitcoin ETF approval odds at the moment,” Seyffart stated on X. I am less hopeful the more we see and hear—and the less we don’t see and hear.” “There really seems to be little to no movement and we’re ~73 days from the deadline,” he continued.
To examine the idea of converting Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust into an exchange-traded fund (ETF), Coinbase and Grayscale met with the SEC on March 8. Although, as far as Balchunas was aware, the SEC had not yet released a statement about the issuers, he said at the time that this would normally be a positive indication.
The cryptocurrencycurrency industry leader GSR predicted 70% of approvals for January. Research analyst Brian Rudick noted that although the corporation is still leaning in this direction and thinks clearance is certain, its estimates could soon change.
“The one caveat is that we haven’t seen that with the spot Ethereum ETFs yet. We started to see movement with the spot Bitcoin ETF applications in October for their January 10 approval (e.g., issuers seeding the ETFs; DTCC listing the ETFs, etc.).” the speaker said.
Variant Fund Chief Legal Officer Jake Chervinsky expressed similar concerns about a lack of progress and maintained his pessimism.
“To be clear, I’m not saying there’s *no* chance for a spot ETH ETF to be approved this year,” he said in a post on X. I’m just stating that, with all of the political and strategic obstacles in the way, the popular consensus in this early to mid-bull market is overestimating the likelihood of approval.”
